Uncertainty measures on probability intervals from the imprecise Dirichlet model
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Uncertainty measures on probability intervals from the imprecise Dirichlet model
When we use a mathematical model to represent information, we can obtain a closed and convex set of probability distributions, also called a credal set. This type of representation involves two types of uncertainty called conflict (or randomness) and non-specificity, respectively. The imprecise Dirichlet model (IDM) allows us to carry out inference about the probability distribution of a catego...
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Natural extension is a powerful tool for combining the expert judgments in the framework of imprecise probability theory. However, it assumes that every judgment is “true” and this fact leads to some difficulties in many applications. Therefore, a second-order uncertainty model is considered in the paper where probabilities on the second-order level are taken by using the imprecise Dirichlet mo...
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INTRODUCTION 2 The " Bag of marbles " example " Bag of marbles " problems (Walley, 1996) • " I have. .. a closed bag of coloured marbles. I intend to shake the bag, to reach into it and to draw out one marble. What is the probability that I will draw a red marble? " • " Suppose that we draw a sequence of marbles whose colours are (in order): blue, green, blue, blue, green, red.
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Walley’s Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) for categorical data overcomes several fundamental problems which other approaches to uncertainty suffer from. Yet, to be useful in practice, one needs efficient ways for computing the imprecise=robust sets or intervals. The main objective of this work is to derive exact, conservative, and approximate, robust and credible interval estimates under the IDM...
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Probability intervals are imprecise probability assignments over elementary events. They constitute a very convenient tool to model uncertain information : two common cases are confidence intervals on parameters of multinomial distributions built from sample data and expert opinions provided in terms of such intervals. In this paper, we study how probability intervals can be transformed into ot...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of General Systems
سال: 2006
ISSN: 0308-1079,1563-5104
DOI: 10.1080/03081070600687643